Severe Outbreak Again?

Connecticut is back in a severe outbreak according to COVID ACT Now.

The upgrade seems to be largely based on the daily new cases per 100K population. 

For me, I think the daily hospitalizations is a far better measure of the state of the epidemic. 

Source: University of Minnesota COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking

The cases chart shows COVID is far worse than in the Spring, while the hospitalizations show it is not.

I know at my hospital the hospitalizations have plateaued for weeks at about 25% below their early December high and well below their high of last spring.  When I work, I don’t see the number of COVID patients as I did in the spring, although as I have mentioned before, since people don’t seem to be avoiding the hospital like they did in the Spring, the COVID cases are going to be less concentrated.

I do know that I know more people in recent weeks who have been diagnosed with COVID than I did in the spring, and I suspect this has to do with more widespread testing catching asymptomatics and those with lessor symptoms who might not have been tested in the spring.  My own daughter for example is now getting tested once every two weeks in order to do her basketball clinics where in the Spring testing would not have been available to her.

Maybe this is wishful thinking.  I don’t want to admit that we are not making progress and that despite the vaccine; things are going to be grim for a long time.  A plateau is nothing to boast of.  It is still too high and more work needs to be done to get the numbers down.

I have been very disappointed in conversations I have had with many people in EMS who refuse to get vaccinated, citing what I believe are foolish, uneducated concerns, some even involving conspiracy theories.  I just shake my head.  And tell them they should get vaccinated.  We need to lead.  All of us.

Get vaccinated.  Wear your PPE.  Stand tall.  Stay safe.